The Context Nobody Asked For

Wall Street kicked off 2025 high on rate-cut dreams and AI euphoria. Six months later the S&P sits +14 %, VIX naps below 12, and half of FinTwit swears a single headline could vaporize the rally—perfect moment for a ruthless mid-year reality check.

Biggest Winners, H1 2025

AI Semis (NVDA, AMD, AVGO)

  • YTD move: NVDA +78 % (group leader)
  • Why it worked: Datacenter-CAPEX arms race; Nvidia booked $39 B in Q4 FY25 revenue, +78 % YoY.
  • Data point: 30-day NVDA call-skew sits in the 92nd percentile.

‍

Copper & Select Miners

  • YTD move: COMEX copper futures +7.8 %; LME spot briefly touched $5/lb in Q1.
  • Why it worked: EV-wiring demand, tariff chatter, Chilean supply angst.
  • Data point: CTA models flip net-long once copper holds $4.55/lb.

‍

Brazil (EWZ ETF)

  • YTD move: +22 %
  • Why it worked: 9 % BRL carry plus broad USD weakness attracted global carry tourists.
  • Data point: Foreign-buying streak now eight straight weeks.

‍

Bitcoin > $100 K

  • YTD move: BTC +15 %; hit $108 K intraday on 30 June.
  • Why it worked: Halving euphoria + relentless MicroStrategy treasury buys.
  • Data point: Three-month BTC call-skew at cycle lows—option desks have flattened upside risk.

‍

Uranium (URA ETF / Spot U₃O₈)

  • YTD move: URA +18 %; spot holding $77/lb.
  • Why it worked: French & Korean reactor restarts plus fresh Kazatomprom supply warnings.
  • Data point: Sprott Physical Uranium Trust trades ~8 % above NAV—a bullish sentiment premium.


Five “If/Then” Trades for H2

  1. If Powell delays the first cut to Nov, dollar shorts squeeze; play it long DXY via UUP calls, hedge with EWZ puts.
  2. If Chilean royalty “fine-tune” talks stall in mid-July, copper rockets; load HG Aug $5.20 calls, finance via short FCX call ladder.
  3. If TAN breaks $50 on another earnings revision, fade the gloom with a TAN-vs-XLE mean-reversion pair (solar margin compression turns on oil input cost).
  4. If BTC re-tests $95k, watch MicroStrategy issuance; gamma-hatched short-dated puts become cheap lottery tickets.
  5. If uranium spot breaches $80, URA gamma will gap—strap a URA Aug 38/45 call spread and pray for Kazakh hiccups.

Bottom line: H1 rewarded long tech, commodity cherry-picking, and short dollar. H2 will hinge on whether the Fed blinks and whether copper’s supply math snaps. Choose your poison and size the antidote.

‍

Happy 4th!